Monday, February 25, 2008

The Fight for Straits Trading

Hugh Young, the high-profile managing director of Aberdeen Asset Management Asia, said Aberdeen had not sold its stake in takeover target Straits Trading but was reviewing recent bids for the commodities and property firm.

Young, who set up Aberdeen's Asian operation in Singapore in 1992, said Aberdeen would like to see "the maximum value realised" for its 2.5% stake in Straits Trading.

"Now whether that is the cash from either Tecity or the Lees, or a longer term restructuring and release of value, we are open minded," he said

Speaking in Aberdeen's Asian headquarters, a converted Singaporean shophouse decorated with Asian art and artefacts from Young's own collection, the fund executive said Aberdeen was considering trying to boost the performance of some funds by using conservative options strategies.

These could include writing options that would be triggered when the stocks hit the firm's target price, which would enable Aberdeen to earn a slightly higher return.

While regarded as one of the region's best long-term performers, Aberdeen stumbled in recent years as its conservative, research-intensive, low turnover strategy lagged its benchmark in three of the last four years.

But its portfolio of blue-chip Asian companies began to outperform again late last year as the region's multi-year bull run gave way to sharp falls.

Young, a tennis enthusiast who grew up in the London suburb of Wimbledon, likens the Aberdeen's investment style to the fabled tortoise that beat the hare over time. He said working through the stock market crash of 1987 had partly influenced his aversion to risky or overpriced companies.

"The fundamental thing of basic research and just checking whether a company is in a decent business, decently financed and run by honest people ultimately has not changed. We're unashamedly traditional," he said.

"We try not to worry about the markets and we certainly fully accept that there will be markets where we do appallingly."

Aberdeen's major bet at the moment is on Asian financial shares, which Young noted have largely avoided investment in the complex debt instruments that have hammered their Western peers.

Financial holdings include Singapore's United Overseas Bank and Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp, as well as property stocks and conglomerates like Hong Kong's Swire Pacific B.

"Typically the banking models in this part of the world are the banking models one remembers from one's youth. They take deposits and they make loans," he said.

"They're not betting their equity and more on exotic financial instruments ... you could say maybe they haven't been clever enough, they're just not up to speed with many of these things."

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MYOB thinks that the game is almost up for Straits Trading. Tecity continues to mop up small shareholding behind their offer price of $6.70. It is unlikely that they will succeed.

On the other hand, MYOB points out that when there is irrationality in the market, 'traditionalists' ala Warren Buffett tend to underperform the market. But like the fabled tortoise, slow and steady wins the race for practisioners of Graham. To paraphase Young, "We're unashamedly Graham".

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Straits Trading: Round 3. Fight!

Reproduced from the Straits Times 11 Feb 08
Two old S'pore families compete for Straits Trading
Even though the battle for the tin mining firm puts them on opposing sides, The Straits Times looks at how the Lee and Tan families share a common history through OCBC Bank
By Lee Su Shyan, Assistant Money Editor

Mr Tan Chin Tuan aka Mr OCBC

TWO of Singapore's most famous corporate families - the Lees and the Tans, which have been linked for decades through OCBC Bank, now find themselves on opposite sides of the fence.

The Lee family, the largest shareholder of OCBC, and the Tan family, that of the late Mr Tan Chin Tuan, a long-standing chairman of OCBC are now vying for control of The Straits Trading Company, an equally venerable company with tin mining and property interests.

On Jan 6, the Tan family made an offer of $5.70-a-share for the company. On Jan 24, the Lee family, made a counterbid of $5.76-a- share. The Tans swiftly responded on Jan 28 by raising their offer to $6.50 per share.

The Tans own about 22.4 per cent of Straits Trading.

The Lee family owns only about 6 per cent. But as it is a key shareholder in OCBC and Great Eastern Holdings, which also own Straits Trading shares, it is seen to represent about 32 per cent of the company.

The apparent clash between the two families - and the direct involvement of the usually reticent Lees - has set tongues wagging in corporate Singapore.

Just how far back do their links go? And what does today's tussle for Straits Trading say about a decades-old relationship?

The Lee Family

THE Lee family is the largest shareholder of OCBC and a regular fixture on the Forbes rich list with a fortune previously estimated at US$3 billion (S$4.3 billion).

The foundations of the family's fortune were laid with Mr Lee Kong Chian, the father of current OCBC director Lee Seng Wee.

Mr Lee Kong Chian hailed from Fujian province, China, arriving here in 1903 at the age of 10.

He was talent-spotted by famous rubber tycoon Tan Kah Kee. One of the richest men in Asia,

Mr Tan wanted to expand his rubber business overseas and hired Mr Lee as his manager, mainly because of his grasp of the English language.

Not only did Mr Lee land the job, he also eventually married Mr Tan's daughter, Ai Lay.

The Great Depression gave the financially conservative Mr Lee the chance to buy acres of rubber land at rock-bottom prices.

With the wealth he made from rubber, he expanded into pineapples, coconut oil, saw mills and biscuits.

But other than being the 'Rubber and Pineapple King', he was behind the creation of what is now known as OCBC.

Facing a banking crisis, three banks - Oversea-Chinese Bank, Ho Hong Bank and Chinese Commercial Bank - merged to form the Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, the largest bank in Singapore then.

Mr Lee was seen as the merger's chief architect. He became OCBC's vice-chairman, then chairman in 1938 - a post he held until just before his death in 1967.

But while he was a banker and a rich businessman, he gave back generously to society.

In 1952, he founded the Lee Foundation, leaving it as much as half his fortune. Mr Lee had three sons and three daughters. His youngest son Seng Wee, 77, is a director at OCBC. Second son Seng Tee handles the rubber businesses while eldest son Seng Gee, 86, is chairman of the Lee Foundation.

The three daughters are Siok Kheng, Siok Tin and Siok Chee.

The Tan Family

IF MR Lee is associated with the birth of the bank, then Mr Tan, who spent half a century at OCBC, is hailed as the man who expanded its empire.

Born in 1908, he was the son of a general manager of the Oversea-Chinese Bank.

After his father died when he was a teenager, a family friend offered him a job at Chinese Commercial Bank.

He helped in the merger and in 1933, was promoted to be the manager of OCBC Properties and a new subsidiary Eastern Realty Company. He attended property auctions and was on the lookout for bargains for the bank.

As joint managing director of OCBC's overseas operations, he ran the bank's operations from India until the end of World War II.

Over the next couple of decades, Mr Tan was to spearhead the bank's investments into a variety of non-banking businesses, many of which are household names today.

These included Straits Trading, Raffles Hotel, department store Robinson & Co, beverage giant Fraser & Neave, Malayan Breweries (now known as Asia Pacific Breweries), Wearnes and others.

One of the earliest deals he was involved in was taking a stake in Raffles Hotel.

It had rankled OCBC that whenever it wanted to book a dining suite to entertain its clients, Raffles Hotel always turned the bank down. Eventually, Mr Tan helped OCBC secure the shares of one of the directors who died and he eventually became the first Asian on the board.

As the British and other foreigners exited Singapore, Mr Tan thought it was a good opportunity for the locals to take over such non-banking businesses. This was how OCBC came to own shares in Straits Trading, which was set up by a German entrepreneur to smelt tin late in the 19th century.

What laid behind his investment philosophy was a belief in growing the OCBC group, with the bank at its core. The companies in the 'OCBC stable' could support each other, with each other's services.

From 1966, he was chairman and managing director of OCBC until 1983 when he retired and was made life president. He died in 2005.

As OCBC invested in other companies, Mr Tan did likewise personally. A shrewd investor, he was a very wealthy man in his own right.

He had three children - son Keng Siong and daughters Kheng Choo and Kheng Lian. The latter of the two daughters is the mother of Ms Chew Gek Khim.

Ms Chew, 46, runs a group of family investment vehicles headed by Tecity. Word has it that she was groomed from an early age by her grandfather to take over.

Mr Tan's nephew, Dr Tony Tan, was also general manager at the bank before entering politics in 1979. He went on to become its chairman and chief executive between 1992 and 1995.

The winds of change

BOUND inextricably by the pivotal roles they played in the history of one of Singapore's largest banks, the two families have had close ties for decades.

This is why the battle for Straits Trading is startling to observers, and could be a signal that after three generations, the winds of change are starting to blow.

There are a few theories as to why this is happening now.

One theory has to do with OCBC's recent sale of its stakes in companies like Robinson and Raffles Hotel.

There is speculation that the Tan family is unhappy with the moves, which could be seen to be detracting from the legacy that Mr Tan had built up.

And this could be why his granddaughter - Ms Chew - could be bidding for control of companies like Straits Trading, which he helped bring into the OCBC stable.

Opposed to an earlier sale of 29.9 per cent of Robinson by OCBC to Indonesia's Lippo Group, Tecity has now accepted an offer from Dubai's Al Futtaim group for its shares in Robinson.

Ms Chew pointedly said:'Robinson is no longer part of the stable of companies my grandfather was instrumental in building.' Al Futtaim will 'understand and cherish the brand'.

OCBC's stake sales have been driven by changes where financial regulators hold banks back from having significant non-banking businesses.

But the Tan family could be worried that any decreasing involvement of the Lees in the bank could speed up the divestment process. Although Mr Lee Seng Wee's son Tih Shih, 44, sits on the OCBC board, none of the third generation of the Lees is as closely involved in the banking business as previously.

With rumblings - on and off - that the Lees could exit the business and OCBC be swallowed up, the new owners of OCBC - or its managers - could accelerate the break-up of the bank's stable of companies. The Tans still own stakes in many of those companies and may have to deal with less-than-friendly majority owners.

Finally, with the passage of time, the original partnership forged between Mr Lee and Mr Tan is just not as strong.

Many see the Straits Trading tussle as proof that the relationship has now become much more business-like.

As investors wait to see if the Lee family will raise its offer, there may have been a time-out during the Chinese New Year period. Business was apparently put to one side, with an exchange of gifts.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The Return of the Pennies

After months in the doldrums, the market has finally shown some signs of activities in recent days. Once again, pennies led the way. Favourites like Memstar, Jade, GMG, LottVision and even Uni-Asia are once again leading the way.

Is it a sign of things to come?

MYOB advocates caution and points out that in such volatile times, it is perhaps best to buy into stocks with large margin of safety.

As a outreach series, MYOB will start a feature on legendary investors. Martin Whitman, founder and Chairman of Third Avenue Management, will be the first. Regarded as the modern day Graham (by moi), Whitman loves buying into cheap and good ....

Stay tuned!

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Straits Trading: Round 2. Fight!

CIMB-GK has been appointed as the independent financial adviser to the directors of
The Straits Trading Company Limited (STCL).

Here are some of the interesting highlights from their letter to the Independent
Directors of STCL.

STCL has four distinct core buseinsses comprising:
(a) Tin mining and smelting;
(b) Hotel operations;
(c) Property operations; and
(d) Securities trading and investment holding.

Using the SOP valuation analysis, CIMB-GK values STCL between $6.09 to $7.27 per
share.


The summary of the valuation as follows:

Tin mining and smelting $118m - $212.2m
Hotel operations $66m - $274.8m
Property operations $1064.1m
Investment in UE $66.3m - $115.5m
Investment in WBL $81.5m - $116.4m
Remaining investment portfolio $316.6m
Other net tangible assets $270.7 m

Total - $1983.2m - $2370.3m

At $7.27 per share, it is perhaps a highly optimisstic target. Interestingly, the Lee
family has raised the stakes in the fight for STCL. At $6.55, it would be interesting
to see how The Cairns would react. MYOB knows little about The Cairns or the
directors, mainly Ms Chew Gek Khim. However, it is worth noting that Tecity recently
gave an irrevocable undertaking to sell its stake in Robinson to Al-Futtaim. The
significance of this move could be related to OCBC and GE 'selling out' Robinson to
the Lippo Group.

In any case, MYOB thinks that there is a chance for a final bid by The Cairns.

Looking at a recent similar event, shares in OUE were privatised at $10.20 each by
the Lippo group (them again!) and Ananda Krishnan in May 06. Disregarding the
dividents, OUE's last traded price is $15.40. So even in the event that both the
offerers fail, STCL should have generated enough interest. Lastly, Ms Teh of BT have
done a comparison of privatisation offers and concluded that cash deals triumph share
deals.

What MYOB likes:
- Cash offer
- Quality of STCL
- Strong investors
- Attachment to STCL

Make it your business? Just hang in there.. the show just started!

Friday, February 15, 2008

Straits Trading: Round 1. Fight!

OCBC Lee Family Ups Offer For Straits Trading To S$6.55/Shr

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--A vehicle controlled by the Lee family, the main shareholder of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp has increased its offer for all of Straits Trading Company to S$6.55 a share, from S$5.76, according to a filing with the Singapore Exchange late Thursday.

The increase was in response to Singapore-based investment firm Tecity Group's move to increase its offer for Straits Trading last month to S$6.50 a share from S$5.70.
The vehicle making the offer for the Lee family, Knowledge Two Investment Pte. Ltd., owns 33.4% of Straits Trading, whose business includes mining and smelting, and hotel investment and management.

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MYOB finds it interesting that two families, with long connections to the company and one another, are fighting it out for control of Straits Trading. According to various reports, it is believed that ST could be valued as much as $7.80.

Stay tuned! MYOB will bring back some numbers to see if it's worth making it our business...